| It seems to us that we are living in a cancer | | | | than died in 1975. |
| epidemic in the United States. Both of us | | | | |
| have lost parents to cancer, and we have been | | | | Over the period of analysis (1975-2003), a |
| losing more and more relatives and friends to | | | | total of 33 million Americans were afflicted |
| cancer. Based on our own sad experience, we | | | | by cancer. Even this is an underestimate, due |
| were driven to carry out research on the | | | | to delayed reporting of cancer cases, and the |
| impacts of cancer in the U.S. over the period | | | | actual number would be considerably higher. |
| 1975 to 2003. This study assesses the U.S. | | | | During the same period, a total of 15 million |
| cancer program, as guided by the National | | | | Americans lost their lives to cancer. The |
| Cancer Institute, by examining three basic | | | | ratio between these two numbers provides an |
| measures of that program: 1) the cancer | | | | approximation of those who die in relation to |
| incidence rate; 2) the cancer mortality rate; | | | | those afflicted by cancer - at 45 percent. |
| and 3) the probability of getting cancer for | | | | Almost half of those who get cancer will |
| an American male or female in their lifetime. | | | | eventually die from it. |
| The basic data series were obtained from | | | | |
| NCI's SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and | | | | Probability of Getting Cancer |
| End Results) program. The result of our | | | | |
| research was a paper (52 pages), and this is | | | | With regard to one's chances of getting |
| a synopsis of that paper. The paper in its | | | | cancer, as of 2002, American males faced a |
| entirety is available on the web: | | | | staggering probability that is close to 50 |
| | | | percent of contracting cancer in their |
| The findings of our research on the impacts | | | | lifetime, while American females were facing |
| of cancer on Americans are grim and shocking. | | | | a 42 percent probability of getting cancer in |
| Since 1975, the effects of cancer on people | | | | their lifetime. Moreover, these probabilities |
| has been continuously and steadily worsening | | | | have been getting worse over time. By |
| - with the following dismal outcomes of the | | | | contrast, the probability in 1975-1977 for an |
| three measures: | | | | American man or woman of contracting cancer |
| | | | was 34 percent. This was already a high |
| Cancer Incidence | | | | number - which became even higher over time. |
| | | | Furthermore, the probabilities - particularly |
| The reported age-adjusted cancer incidence | | | | in the 1990s and 2000s - are underestimates |
| rate of Americans getting cancer in 2003 was | | | | since cancer probabilities are calculated |
| 460 people per 100,000. This was in stark | | | | from cancer incidence rates and these rates |
| contrast to 400 people per 100,000 in 1975. | | | | are underestimates as a result of reporting |
| This reveals a significant worsening of | | | | delays. |
| cancer incidence in the U.S. over time. In | | | | |
| actual numbers, this means that 1.3 million | | | | Cancer in the News |
| Americans got cancer in 2003 as compared to | | | | |
| 864,540 in 1975. This bleak situation is even | | | | Despite data shortcomings that result in |
| worse because of the delays in the reporting | | | | significant underestimates of cancer |
| of cancer cases (Clegg et.al., 2002). As a | | | | statistics, the existing cancer data show a |
| result of these delays, the reported cancer | | | | dismal situation with respect to cancer |
| incidence in 2003 is an underestimate of the | | | | prevention and cancer treatment. The grim |
| correct incidence, which we have calculated | | | | statistics are typically not depicted in the |
| to be 494 per 100,000 people getting cancer; | | | | news media. Over the years, the media has |
| and the total number of Americans getting | | | | focused on news portraying small numbers of |
| cancer now increases to 1.4 million people. | | | | deaths, from diseases like the bird flu, and |
| | | | have ignored the horrendous fact that |
| Over the period of analysis, 1975-2003, the | | | | millions of Americans with cancer have died, |
| reported cancer incidence rate increased at | | | | and continue to die, from cancer. In |
| an average annual rate of 0.5 percent. This | | | | addition, they have focused on short periods |
| positive growth rate means that the number of | | | | of time that give misleading results. |
| people diagnosed with cancer every year was | | | | |
| increasing faster than the population of the | | | | Conclusions and Recommendations |
| country. Moreover, this rate will be higher | | | | |
| with the adjusted incidence numbers for the | | | | If the cancer program worked, positive |
| delayed reporting of cancer cases | | | | benefits to Americans would have been shown |
| (particularly for 1993 to 2003). In addition, | | | | by a decrease in the cancer incidence rate |
| the total number of Americans affected by | | | | and the mortality rate, from their levels in |
| cancer increased every year (1975-2003) by | | | | 1975. In addition, the probability of getting |
| 1.6 percent (also an underestimate). | | | | cancer in one's lifetime would have |
| | | | decreased. That did not happen; on the |
| Cancer Mortality | | | | contrary, the numbers increased across all |
| | | | measures. Even a rudimentary evaluation of |
| During each of the 25 years since 1975 - | | | | the costs of the NCI compared to the benefits |
| until 2001 - more Americans died from cancer, | | | | obtained by the American people would |
| per 100,000, than in 1975. Also, many more | | | | conclude that it has been a horribly |
| Americans died from cancer in 2003 - 553,244 | | | | inefficient use of national funds. |
| - than in 1975 - 430,002. Furthermore, we | | | | |
| surmise that the number of cancer mortality | | | | A single main recommendation arises from the |
| rates reported by SEER/NCI are underestimates | | | | big and continuing failure of the NCI cancer |
| due to the likely misses of cancer death | | | | program: The National Cancer Institute to be |
| cases when they are marked in the IMMEDIATE | | | | drastically restructured and its programs to |
| CAUSE section of the death certificate rather | | | | be significantly changed, in order to develop |
| than the UNDERLYING CAUSE section; this | | | | and make effective programs of prevention and |
| shortcoming can be a substantial one. | | | | programs of treatment of cancer. The American |
| | | | people have been paying too high a price - |
| It is a very disturbing fact that the number | | | | with their lives - for an extremely misguided |
| of Americans who have been losing their lives | | | | and ineffective cancer program. |
| to cancer, in the 1990s and the 2000s - on a | | | | |
| daily basis - reached the count of a World | | | | References |
| Trade Center tower at 1,500 people. This | | | | |
| number translates into 63 Americans dying | | | | Clegg, L.X., et.al., "Impact of Reporting |
| from cancer every hour of the day - which | | | | Delay and Reporting Error on Cancer Incidence |
| means 1 American dies from cancer every | | | | Rates and Trends." Journal of the National |
| minute. These are indeed grim statistics, | | | | Cancer Institute. Vol. 94, No. 20, Oct. 16, |
| attributable to the failure of the cancer | | | | 2002, pp. 1537-1545. |
| program. | | | | |
| | | | National Cancer Institute (NCI). |
| The total number of people in the U.S. who | | | | Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results |
| lost their lives to cancer also increased | | | | (SEER), 1975-2002. |
| annually at a rate of 0.9 percent | | | | |
| (1975-2003). The dismal result of these | | | | United States Bureau of the Census. |
| increases was that at the end of the period, | | | | Statistical Abstract of the United States, |
| 2003, many more people were dying from cancer | | | | 2006; section on Population. |